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Are opioid makers 'out of the woods' after Endo settlement?

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Endo’s $10 million opioid deal with two Ohio counties Tuesday may have appeared small in scope to some, but could the bellwether agreement spell a sigh of relief for the industry on the whole? Investors and analysts seem to think so.

On the heels of Endo’s settlement, Israeli drugmaker Teva traded up 7% on Tuesday as hopes for a similarly modest deal boosted the mood of investors. After all, the company recently struck a bigger deal—$85 million—to settle with the state of Oklahoma and avoid that courtroom.

And it’s not only investors painting a rosy picture: Analysts said Endo’s settlement could forecast a much lower dollar figure for other opioid suits—including a massive multidistrict litigation in Cleveland—and provide a sliver of hope for drugmakers under threat of bankruptcy.

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According to SVB Leerink analyst Ami Fadia, Endo’s own two-county settlement could project out to a total $1.8 billion global deal for the Ireland-based drugmaker, which faces lawsuits from 18 states and 2,300 cities and counties.

RELATED: Endo strikes $10M opioid settlement with just 2 Ohio counties, and Allergan may not be far behind

That’s a far cry from SVB Leerink’s previous forecast of around $4 billion.

And Endo and Teva, of course, are among a bevy of opioid makers facing thousands of federal, state and local lawsuits for its opioid marketing. The good news could carry over to both Mylan and Amneal, which might see settlements more than 50% lower than SVB Leerink’s previous estimate, Fadia said.

Cantor analyst Louise Chen backed up SVB Leerink’s forecast in a Tuesday note to investors, saying the Endo settlement represented a move “out of the woods” for drugmakers.

Fadia’s forecast, however, is less clear for Mallinckrodt and Teva due to uncertainty over whether a global settlement would allocate damages based on the volume of opioids sold or the sales figures each company reached. Endo’s two county lawsuits, Fadia noted, are just one indicator of the Cleveland litigation’s path, and dozens of state attorneys general lawsuits could throw a wrench in the forecast when they go up for trial in 2020.

RELATED: J&J called 'kingpin' of Oklahoma opioid epidemic. Will a judge agree?

The only AG suit currently on trial is in Oklahoma, where Johnson & Johnson has been called a “kingpin” for its role in pushing the state’s opioid epidemic. Once seen as a bellwether for the multidistrict litigation, a negative J&J decision might now represent a one-off given the “unique circumstances” of the trial, Fadia figures.

“We believe the upside from a positive ruling of [J&J] would be a significant positive,” Fadia wrote. “We've held the position that a public nuisance claim for opioids lies on shaky ground, and should this not pass in [Oklahoma], it would provide us with greater confidence that public nuisance would not be used as an argument in other state cases, and especially in the [multidistrict litigation].”

A ruling in the J&J trial is expected within two weeks, Fadia said.

That could also throw the meaning of Teva’s $85 million Oklahoma settlement into question after the drugmaker complained it was given little time to prepare for court with an expedited discovery period, limited manufacturer defendants and no generic pre-emption.

机器翻译

远藤周二与俄亥俄州两个县 1000 万美元的阿片类药物交易,对一些人来说似乎规模不大,但从整体上看,领头羊协议是否会让整个行业松一口气?投资者和分析师们似乎也是这么认为的。继 Endo 达成和解之后,以色列制药商梯瓦周二股价上涨 7%,因投资者对达成类似适度交易的希望提振了情绪。毕竟,该公司最近达成了一个更大的交易——8500 万美元——与俄克拉荷马州达成和解并避开了法庭。而且不仅仅是投资者描绘了一幅美好的画面:分析师表示,远藤的和解可能预示着其他阿片类药物诉讼——包括克利夫兰多地区的大规模诉讼——的美元数额会大幅降低,也为面临破产威胁的制药商提供了一丝希望。调查调查:创新在推出成功的 OTC 产品中的关键作用本研究旨在了解产品创新和剂型在推动新产品设计和开发、消费者参与和非处方药购买兴趣方面的重要性。首批 50 名合格受访者将获得一张价值 5 美元的亚马逊礼品卡。现在进行调查。据 SVB Leerink 分析师 amifadia 称,从现在开始,Endo 自己的两县和解方案可能会给这家总部位于爱尔兰的制药商带来总额达 18 亿美元的全球交易,后者面临来自 18 个州和 2300 个市、县的诉讼。相关:Endo 仅与俄亥俄州的 2 个县达成 1000 万美元的阿片类药物和解,而 Allergan 可能与 SVB Leerink 此前预测的约 40 亿美元相差甚远。当然,Endo 和 Teva 也是阿片类药物生产商中面临数千家联邦、州和地方法律诉讼的公司之一。Fadia 说,好消息可能会传递给 Mylan 和 Amneal,后者可能会看到定居点比 SVB Leerink 以前的估计低 50% 以上。Cantor 分析师 Louise Chen 在周二致投资者的报告中支持了 SVB Leerink 的预测,称 Endo 的和解标志着制药商“走出了困境”。然而,Fadia 对 Mallinckrodt 和 Teva 的预测不太明确,因为不确定全球和解是否会根据阿片类药物的销售量或每个公司达到的销售数字来分配损害赔偿。Fadia 指出,Endo 的两起县内诉讼只是克利夫兰诉讼路径的一个指标,而数十起州总检察长诉讼在 2020 年出庭受审时,可能会给预测带来麻烦。相关:J&J 称为俄克拉荷马州阿片类流行病的“主销”。法官会同意吗?目前唯一正在审理的 AG 诉讼是在俄克拉荷马州,强生公司因其在推动该州阿片类药物流行中的作用而被称为“王牌”。Fadia 的数据显示,曾经被视为跨地区诉讼的领头羊的强生公司的负面判决现在可能代表着审判的“特殊情况”。Fadia 写道:“我们认为,(强生)的积极裁决将带来重大利好。”“我们一直持有的立场是,阿片类药物的公共妨害索赔基础不牢靠,如果这不通过 [俄克拉荷马州],它将为我们提供更大的信心,公共妨害不会在其他州的案件中被用作论据,特别是在 [多地区诉讼]。Fadia 说:“在强生的审判中,预计两周内就会做出裁决。这也可能使 Teva 在俄克拉荷马州 8500 万美元和解协议的意义受到质疑,此前,该制药公司抱怨称,它没有多少时间准备法庭,发现期限加快、有限的制造商被告以及没有仿制药优先购买权。

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